Sentinels of the Multiverse Difficulty Score System
by Matthew Gray
Sentinels of the Multiverse is a great game. But, it can be hard to get the right level of difficulty. Some combinations of heroes, villains, and environments are simply too easy, while others are extremely difficult and the default villain difficulty levels only capture a small portion of what's going on. So, here's an attempt at a more complex but more comprehensive way of tuning the difficulty of a Sentinels game. I took the data from the Sentinels Statistics Project, and built a Naive Bayes victory prediction system and converted it into a "difficulty point" based scoring system. The original data may have all sorts of biases, and there's obvious cases where there's strong cross-terms between heroes or villains that's not accounted for, but it seems to work reasonably.
To determine the difficulty of a game, simply add up the difficulty values of the number of players, each of the heroes, the villain and the environment. The last table on the right translates difficulty scores to observed loss rates.
This analysis was done by Matthew Gray.
Feel free to use this data however you like, including in Sentinels related software, etc. Credit to me and a link back here are appreciated, but not required. Please let me know how you're using it at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The difficulty data in JSON format are available to make software use of this data easier.
~ Very limited data, so take this number with a grain of salt.
|Best of Times Chrono Ranger||~~|
|Dark Watch Setback||40|
|Absolute Zero Elemental Wrath||31|
|Prime Warden Captain Cosmic||30|
|Dark Watch Nightmist||30|
|Dark Watch Expatriette||29|
|Dark Watch Fixer||23|
|Bunker Engine of War||17|
|Termi-Nation Absolute Zero||~~|
|KNYFE Rogue Agent||13|
|The Argent Adept||9|
|Ra: Horus of Two Horizons||1|
|Rook City Wraith||1|
|Prime Warden Argent Adept||-4|
|The Eternal Haka||-6|
|Kvothe Six-String Argent Adept||-8|
|Wraith: Price of Freedom||-14|
|Prime Warden Haka||-18|
|Prime Warden Fanatic||-33|
|Prime Warden Tempest||-36|
|Super Scientific Tachyon||-51|
|Scholar of the Infinite||-52|
|Team Leader Tachyon||-66|
|The Greatest Legacy||-78|
|Adamant Sentinels||-94 ~|
|Desperate Naturalist||-136 ~|
~~ Insufficient data for a reasonable estimate. Play more games and log them.
* Insufficient data in advanced mode to get reliable individual estimates, but probably ~75 points harder than basic.
|Agent of Gloom Spite||53||*|
|Vengeance Style (Vengeance and Villains)||36||*|
|Grand Warlord Voss||-24||76|
|Mad Bomber Blade||-55||25|
** Based on relatively low data so expect additional noise in this estimate.
|Ruins of Atlantis||49|
|Pike Industrial Complex||4|
|Tomb of Anubis||2|
|Silver Gulch 1883||-4|
|Enclave of the Endlings||-6|
|Wagner Mars Base||-13|
|Realm of Discord||-16|
|The Court of Blood||-28|
|Temple of Zhu Long||-47|
|Mobile Defense Platform||-48|
|The Final Wasteland||-58|
Number of Players
|Total||Game Loss Probability|
|275||Extremely Hard. 85% chance of losing.|
|200||Very Hard. 73% chance of losing.|
|100||Difficult. 50% chance of losing.|
|65||Challenging. 41% chance of losing.|
|0||Typical. 27% chance of losing.|
|-65||Easy. 16% chance of losing.|
|-125||Very Easy. 10% chance of losing.|
|-200||Extremely Easy. 5% chance of losing.|
|Sentinels is a co-op game where the players usually win, apropos to the superhero theme.|
In my experience, games in the 0 - 150 difficulty range are the most fun. Games below -100 sometimes feel like they are simply automatic wins where what you do doesn't matter. Similarly, above 175, bad luck or good luck feel like they play a more prominent role.
Specific combos may get very high difficulties and be easy and specific combos may yield very low difficulties and be difficult. Enter the results in the Sentinels Tracker and I may occasionally update the model.
This version of the model was built on Sat May 28 17:20:27 EDT 2016, and is based on 15934 games from a 5/28/2016 download of the data collected from the Sentinels Tracker Form. You can also see the aggregation of this data by Lynk Fox.